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Prerequisites: OPMG 507, OPMG 520 or consent of the instructor. Offered in spring. This course presents a normative approach to making decisions in one's personal and professional life. The first half of the course introduces the fundamentals of decision analysis: probabilistic modeling, preference modeling and the Markov process, decision tree construction and rollback, the value of imperfect and perfect information. The second half of the course stresses how decision analysis is used in real-world practice. Topics include sensitivity analyses, influence diagrams, stochastic dominance, probabilistic encoding and tornado diagrams and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). |