Forecasting Change
AUC Forum publication makes early predictions about the revolution
and receives international attention
As the world's media
converged on Egypt and
the Middle East, pundits
and journalists have been
particularly transfixed by one
question: How did this revolution
happen and why didn't we see it
coming? While most of the
literature on Middle East politics
and many policymakers had not
considered the possibility of a
citizen-powered regime change, the
AUC Forum publication, The
Changing Middle East: A New Look at
Regional Dynamics, published by
AUC Press in October 2010,
outlined the circumstances likely to
push Egyptians and Arabs to the
point of revolution.
Bahgat Korany, political science
professor and director of
the AUC Forum, is the
editor and main author of
The Changing Middle East.
The book, said Korany,
challenges the prevalent
concept of Middle East
exceptionalism, or the sense
that while the rest of the
world changes, develops
and advances, the Middle
East remains stagnant in its
politics and society.
In the book's first
chapter, Korany presents
the analytical framework to
"look at the Middle East
differently," emphasizing
change or transformation and the
necessity of looking at "politics from
below." He drew early attention to
what many are now citing as the
catalysts of the revolution,
specifically the youth population
bulge, and the gap between this
huge group and aging leadership.
"My colleagues looked too much at
the top of the political system and
not enough below," Korany noted.
"This is why they could not see
what the book identifies as 'the
volcano underneath.' The lesson
from this is not to limit ourselves to
the top of the political pyramid, as
the politics of ordinary people
matters as well."
Korany believes that the voice of
Middle Eastern youth, who
constitute almost two thirds of the
Arab population, will continue to
impact in the coming months on
government and social transition.
"I believe that youth get a lot more
credit now," Korany said. "Previously,
many used to think that they had no
interest in major public issues, but
they have proven that this is not
true. Young people have proven
now that they can achieve. If
communication between youth and
the new government happens,
I believe that the transition will be
effective and smooth."
The Changing Middle East's
chapters follow up on Korany's
framework to analyze different
aspects of transformation, from
media to the status of civil society
and non-state actors. Korany's
collaborator's are scholars, Rasha A.
Abdullah, '92, '96, associate professor
and chair of AUC's journalism and
mass communication department;
Ola AbouZeid; Omar Ashour; Julie
C. Herrick; Amani Khandil and
Hazem Khandil. Given the attention
the book received from
international media, from CNN to
Brazilian TV, AUC Press is releasing
a paperback edition with a new
introduction to reflect recent events.
Through its panels and
workshops, the AUC Forum
discusses issues of global and
regional importance.
By Madeline Welsh
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